Pokies is a term for slots that are used in Australia and New Zealand. But what is true about the winning cycle of pokies? Are there phases when the machine is set to give little, medium, a lot, or nothing?
Again and again, you can read about the pokies winning cycle in forums and on some websites. We ourselves have been in the gambling industry for decades, so we want to add our mustard to that.
What are Differences between Arcade and Online Casino?
Whether in the arcade or in the online casino, the winnings and losses are calculated by a computer program. While on the Internet and also in the casino the good machines with a payout percentage of 95% or more are used, other (extremely bad) rules apply to the money slot machines in the arcade.
Therefore, here we treat both variants separately from each other.
The Winning Cycle for Online Pokies
Slot machines are always based on a random number generator. This should ensure that the next result is completely independent of the previous spin. The well-known principle “chance has no memory” applies here.
The easiest way to explain this is with the roulette game. Just because red came 5 times in a row, the probability of black or red on the next spin is again the same. However, proponents of the theory of the winning cycle in pokies believe that there are different phases or cycles in pokies.
The (Alleged) Phases
If the machine doesn’t pay out anything, but only swallows your money, this is a low phase. Once enough money is lost on online pokies, the pokie switches to the high phase for a short to medium period of time. Now fat winnings are paid out regularly. Once a certain percentage of the bets placed in the low phase have been paid out, the machine returns to normal operation and you lose again.
Example: The machine swallows a total of $1,000 in 10 hours. In the subsequent winning phase, $900 is paid out again to the player net. The remaining $100 goes as profit to the arcade operator or the online casino.
However, how long the losing and winning cycles last is always quite random – at least that is what proponents of the theory of the winning cycle in slot machines say.
This is, of course, complete nonsense, because each spin in any number generator is always independent of those in the past (and those in the future). Programmed win and loss phases would contradict this. Therefore, at this point we can clearly say: there is no such thing as a winning cycle in pokies!
With this, we could end the article. But we won’t, because we’d like to prove why this is so.
The Fairy Tale of the Winning Cycle of Pokies – Casino Games with Best Odds
As evidence that there are profit cycles in slot machines, some players use the legal basis for slot machine operators. In this state:
The gaming ordinance does not specify a payout percentage. The resulting odds in gaming practice depend, among other things, on the mathematics of the individual games and the players’ gaming behavior or strategies.
Here it is written in black and white that I can influence the machine with my playing behavior and the right strategy? Or how should this be understood?
Well, it’s complicated. A slot usually consists of much more than just the normal game. We know features like card risk, risk ladder or jackpots from Novoline, Mercury or Bally Wulff. And all of these different features are covered by this short game regulation. This is the only reason why this seems so vague.
All special features have different payout chances. With Novoline’s Gamble feature, the chance of doubling the win is 50%. Mercury’s risk ladder, on the other hand, uses a different percentage. And Bally Wulff’s Red Hot Firepot jackpot again works like a slot machine within a slot machine.
Also important is point 4, which is not usually mentioned. It clearly states “in the long run.”
TR5 and Winning Cycle
The unclear situation in the casinos also contributes to these legends. Because just by the latest changes called TR5 everything has become even more confusing in terms of average loss per player per hour and maximum profit and the forced breaks.
In the meantime, statistically you cannot lose more than 60 AUDs per hour and win 400 AUDs per hour. Here you might assume that if you lost just enough, you would automatically win. But that’s not the case. If one of these limits is reached, there will be no draw between the money store and the credit balance for a certain period of time. After that, the slot machine will start over. A winning cycle is prevented by this regulation.
Manipulation of Slot Machines
Changes in payout behavior are theoretically always possible. A well-known case came to light in the fall of 2019. A machine operator had modified his machines with illegal software. While the player only sees that he has not won anything, the software books the game round as if the player had won money. In addition, so-called cash data notebooks are used to adjust the official result lists of the respective machines. With this scam, the arcade operator generated winning cycles from the players – but only on paper. The goal was to make the tax office believe that they had collected much less and thus paid less tax.
For this reason, we personally think it is safer to play in a decent casino or in an online casino. Even in big gaming establishments, everything can go right. But with the little gambling house around the corner, you really don’t know who’s in charge.
Profit Cycle pokies in the Online Casino
At least in the casino or in serious online casinos, many of the legal rules that arcades face do not apply. The biggest differences are:
- No maximum gain.
- No loss limits on pokies
- Payout percentages between 92% and 99%
- No prescribed breaks
- Multiple machines can be played simultaneously
Personally, this is why we only play in a reputable online casino. You just can’t win at a land based casino.
But you won’t find a winning cycle here either.
Hot and Cold pokies
Due to random generators, it is entirely possible that individual pokies will give significantly less or more than expected over a period of time. On average, pokies pay back 96% of all bets. Of course, you would never play if you could always get 96 cents back on every $1 spin. This is why there is the so-called volatility, i.e. the spread of the winnings. At low volatility there are frequent but small wins, at high volatility you win less frequently but then more.
Therefore, with the high volatility of pokies, it is likely that less than 60% of bets will be paid out more often over a period of time. These machines are known as “cold pokies”. Conversely, however, some pokies are statistically overpaying for a given period of time. 200% or more of the bets, even over a longer period, is quite possible. In this case, one speaks of a “hot slot”.
But this is not a winning cycle. Random number generators work the same way for pokies. Even on a cold slot, the chances of hitting the jackpot are just as high as on a “hot” slot. Because as we wrote above, previous results do not affect your next spin. Period.
For this reason, online casinos and gambling houses eventually admit to themselves which slot machine is currently “hot” and which is “cold.”
Bonus Credits and Free Play Money
All this applies to pokies in the same way as when you play with play money or with a casino bonus – but only if they have a real random number generator. Some wannabe casinos from abroad use manipulated games on their sites. These only pretend to have a winning cycle on the pokies. If you spin the reels there with play money, you are likely to get one big win after another. So influenced, that you might register an account. And then you will only lose in the long run.
Who Tests Online pokies and Makes Sure the Terms are Fair?
A programmed winning cycle in slot machines would also violate fair play. After all, on each spin, you should have the same odds over and over again. If the machine you play on is in a phase where it pays less or more, this is a huge violation of the legal guidelines. This is why there are independent institutes like TST or eCOGRA that check the mechanics and random number generators. These tests have nothing to do with gambling but are performed according to industry standards. However, the legislature also conducts both registered and unannounced checks time and again.
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